US diplomacy is significant for it’s lack of diplomacy. We don’t do diplomacy, we just issue edicts that if not obeyed lead to sanctions, covert-ops and invasions.

The imperial rational was articulated by Karl Rove, in the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

However, that was over 20 years ago and now the American empire has reached its sell-by-date.

Sanctions are a good place to start. The US has come to rely on a host of powerful sanctions based on its control over the world’s financial system. Unfortunately, the overuse of this economic black-mail has ended up undermining the American empire by forcing countries to de-couple from the dollar, hastening it’s reserve currency privilege.

Talk about blow-back.

Then there’s our record of covert-ops and invasions, which is not that great. There was the occupation of Afghanistan, the invasion of Iraq, the destruction of Libya and Syria, the Ukrainian coup, followed by the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. Lots of death and destruction but nothing that one would describe as a win. Any honest appraisal would conclude that the US’s commitment of force over diplomacy has been an abject failure. Except for the military/industrial/complex (MIC) which views failed wars as an inexhaustible fountain of profit.

The freak-out over Cuba hosting Chinese signal intelligence, is illustrative of the Beltway zeitgeist. It’s also extremely hypocritical, considering the US’s ongoing proxy-war against Russia in Ukraine. Americans don’t see the hypocrisy, but the rest of the world certainly does.

All of this, and more is causing a sort-of mass-psychosis among Washington’s elite factions, demonstrated by Trump’s ongoing tariff cluster-fuck.

Trump’s actions reflects deeper realities within American foreign policy thinking. While his rhetoric may appear to break with the bipartisan interventionist orthodoxy of the past, his “America First” doctrine remains grounded in a belief in US global supremacy–as evidenced by his failed bombing campaign in Yemen and aggressive trade tactics. Moreover, the wars and covert-ops continue no matter the president or party. Since 9/11 the US has fully embraced military solutions and only military solutions, as the forever wars testify. When it comes to wars, there is a deep state fully committed to bellicosity. We can witness this dynamic in relation to Trump’s peace proposals for Ukraine, then the refusal to hear Russian grievances, and the ongoing hostility from the national security state.

For Trump, negotiating such a deal with Moscow was always going to be politically risky. The American national security establishment, as well as Trump’s own administration, is filled with neocons committed to prolonging the conflict to weaken Russia. While Trump and peace envoy, Steve Witkoff, may have been serious about reaching a deal, the internal resistance was overwhelming. Faced with this pressure, Trump appears unwilling to take the political risk necessary to follow through. 

To understand Trump’s dilemma perhaps it’s useful to paraphrase President Clinton’s advisor James Carville‘s famous pronouncement–It’s the end of empire, stupid. The end of the American empire and transition to multipolarity is coming no matter the deep state’s frantic efforts. The signs are everywhere if you care to look.

If there was any sort of responsibility among our political leadership, there should be a reckoning. And certainly for the corporate media, who is just as complicit with their cheerleading of the neoliberal economic and neoconservative foreign policies that have brought us to this point. What’s beyond doubt, though, is that the corporate media, which once saw neoliberalism triumphant everywhere, which once saw an American hyper-power bestriding the globe forever, which once saw liberal democracy spreading unstoppably through the Middle East, will have been wrong again.

Unfortunately, as the empire loses primacy, Washington continues to act as the protecter of western capitalism even as the US military staggers from one debacle to another. Something has to give. Due to the sort of short term thinking that has crippled American industry, the lack of effective diplomacy has lost what goodwill America has in the world and is now viewed, largely, as a rogue state that threatens international peace and security.

Empire’s don’t collapse; they commit suicide by destroying their primary sources of wealth: respect and industry, driven by elite malfeasance and corruption. All imperial powers behave like rogue states, but the cultural hegemony and prestige of America has had nearly as much to do with its global dominance as military strength or economic might. To instill obedience into an empire, a state needs mystique and the ability to seduce allies and partners to do their bidding. The US doesn’t really have this any longer, as the world has long seen the hypocrisy of American actions. 

The end of empire and multipolarity promises radical changes, including the US State Department abandoning the threats and sanctions and relearning diplomacy.

Or, not.