Trump’s attack on Iran is turning into the biggest military disaster in US history. Even the neocons are saying it, and the corporate media is reporting it.

On May 10, Robert Kagan, arch-neocon who’s married to Maidan cookie-monster Victoria Nuland, lamented in The Atlantic that the United States had “suffered a unique defeat in its efforts to subjugate Iran.” He says that the US defeat “can neither be repaired nor ignored.” The Strait of Hormuz would not be open as it was prior to the US and Israel’s attack on Iran. Meanwhile, far from being destroyed, Iran’s regional position had dramatically improved. China and Russia have been strengthened, while the US’s position has been “substantially diminished.”

A New York Times story makes official what I and many other heterodox analysts have been saying all along. U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities: “The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities.”
It gets worse. The Washington Post reported on May 6, that after examining Iranian satellite imagery, some 228 structures of pieces of equipment at US military sites across the Middle East since February 28 had been damaged and destroyed. Hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft, vital radar, communications and air defence equipment had been struck by Iran’s forces. The dangers posed by Iranian strikes had been so intense that US military personnel were forced to work “remotely,” as to force some US bases in the region to relocate personnel out of missile range. Mark Cancian, a former Marine Corps colonel and senior advisor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), found the strikes to be deadly accurate. “There are no random craters indicating misses.”
Other facts of Trump’s misadventure continue to leak out. Rep. Ed Case explicitly confirms the Pentagon has lost a staggering 39 aircraft in the disastrous war against Iran, exposing the unprecedented destruction of American military assets.
Wait. I’m pretty sure I never saw anything about that on CNN.
There are numerous reasons for the US’s defeat. The military/industrial/complex (MIC) builds fussy, boutique weapons that cost staggering amounts of money which don’t perform as advertised, and in limited quantities. The US military is geared towards short, expeditionary conflicts, not protracted industrial wars, something Iran and other adversaries have picked up on. Then there’s the fact that our putative elite still believe it to be 1991, when the US empire was at its zenith. All of this has been apparent for any of us who cared to notice but seemed to come as a surprise to Trump and crew.
US air defense weapons used to cope with Iranian strikes are a good example of the dilemma. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates the use of at least 190 THAAD interceptors and 1,060 Patriot interceptors between February 28 and April 8, running down inventories of both at 53% and 43% respectively. Just to rub it in, Iran, according to an analysis by the US intelligence community, retains roughly 75% of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and roughly 70% of its pre-war missile stockpile.

Unfortunately, it’s not just Trump. In an interview with Danial Davis, John Mearsheimer makes an important point. Davis: “What are the chances do you think that given all of the options here that President Trump does some version of the declare victory and walk away theory?”
Mearsheimer: “I think the chances are about zero. Uh first of all, the national security establishment in uh the United States is addicted to war. It’s deeply committed to policing every inch of the planet. Uh and the idea that we would walk away from the Middle East from the point of view of the American national security establishment is unthinkable.”

Meanwhile, the damage to the US economy from the closure of the Straight of Hormuz continues to accumulate, even as the stock market posts record gains.
Prices for these grocery items have spiked highest since the war began
Relentlessly climbing energy costs, coupled with tariffs and ongoing agricultural and farming issues, mean grocery bills are rising quickly and might continue for months. Costs spiked especially for a few key staples of Americans’ diets, including fresh produce and beef.
Overall, grocery prices are up more than 18 percent since January 2022. And the energy shocks from the war are only just now starting to be felt on supermarket shelves. But the inflation this time differs from rising prices after the pandemic, William Masters, professor of food policy and economics at Tufts University, said. In 2022, people had saved money after saving while in the pandemic lockdown and could more easily absorb some of the demand-fueled inflation. Now, supply costs are driving the increases. “Here, there’s not even the higher paychecks to cushion the blow.”

Does Trump care?
Reporter: “What extent are Americans’ financial situation motivating you to make a deal?”
Trump: “Not even a little bit. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation“
Of course, Trump does care about some American’s financial situation, and the billionaires who control our country’s wealth are closely connected to US national security policies for better or, in this case, for worse. Their enormous fortunes are a direct reward for their devotion to the American empire, and the tribute that flows into the empire from far off vassals increasingly rewards this narrow cohort. In normal times the billionaires prosper at the expense of the rest of us, but Trump’s epic cluster-fuck has the potential to harm them too.
Too funny.
The real story is in the wreckage. Why did Trump, the deep state and the financiers decide to roll the dice on Iran? Maybe it because there’s a perverse logic to war in late-stage capitalism. War destroys capital, reorganizes markets, accelerates technological restructuring, expands state subsidies to strategic sectors, and enables surplus transfer through monopoly, sanctions and geopolitical control. In Orwell’s 1984, Emmanuel Goldstein observed that “War is a way of shattering to pieces, or pouring into the stratosphere, or sinking to the depths of the sea, materials that might otherwise be used to make the masses too comfortable and in the long run too intelligent.”

And we can’t have that.
Unfortunately, America’s obsession with domination and exceptionalism eliminates every possibility for the US to exist among nations like a normal country and sets the stage for a calamitous downfall.
Update: This seems like a useful metric for our milieu. “The Apocalypse Early Warning System is a sign of the times: it assumes the rich will know it before everyone else, and that it may therefore be deduced from signs of panic among the rich. Namely, scrambling for their private jets.”



























